Turkmenistan: Population movement - Imminent DREF Operation (MDRTM001)

Scenario analysis When and where is the hazard expected to happen? Escalating tensions and worsening security, mobility, and socioeconomic conditions in Iran from late February to March 2026 increase the likelihood of sudden crossborder movements into Turkmenistan. Reports indicate intensifying hostilities, airspace and movement restrictions, service disruptions, and growing economic pressures, all heightening vulnerabilities. More than 290 third-country nationals (TCNs) have already entered Turkmenistan, and further arrivals remain possible. The National Society maintains close engagement with public authorities and humanitarian partners in the country. Current contingency planning and scenario analyses indicate a credible risk of increased population movements and highlight the need for